MIT has created a new model of COVID-19 infection based on publicly accessible evidence, together with existing epidemiological equations regarding outbreaks, and inference based on neural networks. The model, defined in a recent study, proves reliable when trained on data spanning late January to early March in predicting the real spread leading up to April 1 in various regions around the world, and it shows that any imminent or near-term relaxation or reversal of quarantine measures currently in effect will result in an “exponential explosion” in the number of infections.
MIT researchers aimed to develop a model focused solely on data from COVID-19, while the others have used knowledge from SARS or MERS to inform their charting of the development of the epidemic. The integration of available COVID-19 data with a neural network-based estimation of the number of infectious individuals under successful quarantine and thus no longer likely to be compromised by others allows us to go beyond current models in terms of precise modeling and analysis of the effect of social distancing and exclusion measures – and the influence will be curved by these measures.
MIT’s forecast suggests that the latest COVID-19 outbreak spike in the U.S. and Italy will all emerge early in the next week or so, which fits actual valid forecasts. That sounds like good news because it’s about the number of sick patients and the effect on the healthcare system, but that shouldn’t be taken as if it’s when it’s time to start easing the current steps.
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The study states that by “comforting quarantine measures too quickly, we expected the effects will be even more disastrous,” according to the model maker and MIT mechanical engineering professor George Barbastathis when compared with a similar second-wave revival that occurred in Singapore after it started relaxing its measures too early.
Our last bit of news for today is that the Massachusetts Department of Public Health will now check for COVID-19, ensuring that test reports for confirmed infections in the state will be available within 24 hours, a major increase in processing time from the CDC, which was historically the only center in the nation that could test for the virus.
Conclusion:
All meetings and courses that on-campus group members attend can continue to be conducted as usual.
And, if you feel tired, please stay home and encourage us to do so. Encourage hand washing, offer hand sanitizer and cloth, reduce communal waste, and train the students and colleagues on appropriate precautionary steps. Try providing a way of participating online or making such facilities for broad groups.
